If the economy, either on a national or individual level, is doing well, voters will reward the incumbent by voting for her/him in the upcoming election. or micro-level indicators, such as individual changes in economic welfare (egotropic, pocketbook voting) 10, 13. Studies mostly use either macro-level indicators (sociotropic voting), such as inflation, GDP, economic growth, etc. The evaluation, or ‘performing well’, is usually conceptualised via economic indicators, and connected with the concept of economic voting 10, 11, 12. Politicians, in turn, are incentivised to keep their promises and to perform well during their mandate. In that sense, elections are used to control the democratic processes and hold politicians accountable for their actions 9. This model is based on the idea that citizens use voting to punish or reward incumbents 8. One of the main models of rational voting is the retrospective voter. If voters are rational, their broad political participation and inclusion should be warranted if they are not, their role in the political system should be minimised. They are of great importance because assumptions and findings on voters’ rationality are used to justify different political institutions and systems 7. Can citizens correctly perceive information or are they prone to biases 1, 2, are they informed enough 3, 4, 5, are they motivated to participate in politics 6, etc.? These questions relate to the idea, or the norm, of a rational citizenry. Some of the ongoing questions regarding voting behaviour are related to voters’ competencies. This research and manuscript preparation were not financially supported by any funding source. Results are interpreted in light of the retrospective voter model. Discussion: Presented results imply that floods did not have an impact on the election outcome. Furthermore, results showed that neither the presence nor the amount of the government’s relief spending had an impact on voting behaviour. However, once we accounted for differences in control variables between flooded and non-flooded areas, the flood effect disappeared. Voters from flooded areas decreased their support for the incumbent government and president in the elections following the floods. Results: Main results showed that, prior to matching, floods had an impact on voting behaviour in the 20 elections. The cases of natural disaster in the present study were floods that affected Croatia in 20. Method: Matching method technique was used, which ensures that affected and non-affected areas are matched on several control variables. ![]() To investigate whether voters are prone to punish politicians for events that are out of their control, this study was conducted in the previously unstudied context of Croatia, and by considering some of the methodological issues of previous studies. Introduction: Studies show that natural disasters influence voters’ perception of incumbent politicians.
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